Al Saddvs
Al-Gharafa
COMPLETEDQatar · Stars League · 9/5/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Sadd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Sadd 4-1 Al-Gharafa
Original prediction
Al Sadd
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 65.1% | 54.1% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 18.0% | 22.4% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 16.9% | 23.5% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Al Sadd
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Al Sadd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al SaddWWWWL
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al-GharafaLLWDL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Al SaddAl-Gharafa
100.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence33.3
100.0Form50.0
85.5Power47.8
2.53xG1.41