Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEOM · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Riyadh 1-0 NEOM
Original prediction
NEOM
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 26.4% | 29.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.1% | 25.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 47.5% | 44.3% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
NEOM
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
NEOM has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al RiyadhDLLDW
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NEOMLWWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al RiyadhNEOM
55.6Attack44.4
0.0Defence66.7
11.1Form66.7
25.1Power61.0
1.33xG1.75