Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Riyadh · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Riyadh 2-1 Al Taawon
Original prediction
Al Riyadh
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 32.5% | 39.3% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 28.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 39.7% | 32.1% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Al Riyadh
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Al Riyadh has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al RiyadhLDWDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Al TaawonLDWLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al RiyadhAl Taawon
33.3Attack13.3
33.3Defence43.3
33.3Form13.3
35.7Power25.9
1.33xG0.95