Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Raed · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Raed 3-0 Al Jeel
Original prediction
Al-Raed
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.8% | 42.1% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.4% | 28.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.38 | 20.8% | 29.6% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Al-Raed
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Al-Raed has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-RaedLLWWD
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al JeelDLL
GF 0 · GA 3 · avg 0.00/1.00
BTTS 0/3O2.5 0/3
Al-RaedAl Jeel
33.3Attack0.0
44.4Defence66.7
33.3Form11.1
40.3Power29.5
1.18xG1.02