Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Qadsia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Qadsia 3-0 Fortis
Original prediction
Al Qadsia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 78.1% | 45.7% | -32.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.46 | 14.1% | 25.0% | 10.8 pts |
| Away | 11.75 | 7.8% | 29.3% | 21.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Al Qadsia
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Al Qadsia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al QadsiaWLWLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FortisWDDWW
GF 17 · GA 4 · avg 3.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al QadsiaFortis
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power80.3
1.33xG1.40