Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Orubah · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Orubah 1-0 Al Jeel
Original prediction
Al Orubah
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.0% | 46.9% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.3% | 28.1% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.11 | 17.7% | 25.1% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Al Orubah
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Al Orubah has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al OrubahDDDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al JeelLDLL
GF 0 · GA 6 · avg 0.00/1.50
BTTS 0/4O2.5 1/4
Al OrubahAl Jeel
25.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence50.0
25.0Form8.3
42.1Power23.6
1.23xG0.82