Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nejmeh · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nejmeh 1-0 Istiqlol
Original prediction
Al Nejmeh
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 31.0% | 36.7% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 28.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.6% | 35.3% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Nejmeh
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Al Nejmeh has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NejmehDWWWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
IstiqlolLWWWL
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Al NejmehIstiqlol
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.57xG1.33