Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nassr 1-0 NEOM
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 64.6% | 55.5% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.8% | 23.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 5.89 | 15.6% | 21.1% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NassrWWLDW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NEOMLWDWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al-NassrNEOM
79.2Attack51.9
70.8Defence70.4
79.2Form59.3
76.0Power61.0
1.57xG0.91