Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nassr 3-1 Neftchi
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 78.3% | 43.0% | -35.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.87 | 13.5% | 23.9% | 10.4 pts |
| Away | 11.31 | 8.2% | 33.1% | 24.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–17%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NassrWLDWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NeftchiDWWWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-NassrNeftchi
0.0Attack33.3
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power80.3
1.30xG1.72