Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 74.3% | 58.7% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.95 | 15.5% | 22.3% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 9.06 | 10.2% | 19.1% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NassrWWWLL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Al TaawonDLDDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al-NassrAl Taawon
100.0Attack22.2
77.8Defence66.7
100.0Form22.2
92.0Power40.2
1.98xG0.88