Al-Nassrvs
Al Diriyah
COMPLETEDSaudi-Arabia · Pro League · 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nassr 3-0 Al Diriyah
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 67.7% | 57.9% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.16 | 17.8% | 23.4% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 6.37 | 14.4% | 18.7% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80