Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 83.1% | 72.9% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 8.59 | 10.8% | 15.7% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 15.38 | 6.0% | 11.5% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
72.9%
Model confidence
72.9%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NassrLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
AbhaLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-NassrAbha
86.7Attack26.7
66.7Defence26.7
80.0Form6.7
76.8Power23.3
2.96xG0.75