Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 3-3 Smail
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.2% | 40.2% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.3% | 27.3% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 23.5% | 32.6% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrLDWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SmailDLDLW
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al NasrSmail
44.4Attack66.7
11.1Defence0.0
11.1Form11.1
26.4Power29.2
1.82xG1.78