Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 4-1 Hatta SC
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.2% | 53.1% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 20.6% | 23.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.89 | 15.2% | 23.6% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrDWDLL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Hatta SCLDLWL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al NasrHatta SC
66.7Attack66.7
66.7Defence16.7
66.7Form16.7
68.0Power36.5
2.41xG1.39