Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 2-0 Hatta SC
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 65.8% | 55.2% | -10.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 19.5% | 22.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 6.21 | 14.7% | 22.1% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrWWDWD
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Hatta SCLLDLW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al NasrHatta SC
40.0Attack33.3
53.3Defence26.7
33.3Form20.0
45.2Power30.3
1.93xG1.11