Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 2-0 Fanja
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.3% | 40.8% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 31.3% | 29.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.4% | 29.9% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrWL
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 1/2O2.5 2/2
FanjaNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
Al NasrFanja
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24