Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 1-0 Al Seeb
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 25.9% | 37.0% | 11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.6% | 28.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.5% | 34.4% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrDLDWW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al SeebLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al NasrAl Seeb
66.7Attack66.7
88.9Defence77.8
100.0Form77.8
87.9Power75.3
1.33xG1.04