Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Al Nasr are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Al-Jazira are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Al-Jazira hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Pro League, while Al Nasr holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40