Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 1-2 Ajman
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 47.0% | 42.5% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.8% | 25.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.2% | 32.3% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrLWDLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AjmanLWWWL
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al NasrAjman
44.4Attack77.8
55.6Defence11.1
44.4Form66.7
51.1Power55.1
1.95xG1.68