Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Kuwait · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasar 1-7 Al Kuwait
Original prediction
Al Kuwait
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.62 | 13.5% | 28.7% | 15.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.4% | 25.6% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 65.1% | 45.7% | -19.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Al Kuwait
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Al Kuwait has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasarLWWDD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Al KuwaitLWWDD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al NasarAl Kuwait
44.4Attack55.6
44.4Defence66.7
66.7Form77.8
55.1Power70.7
1.33xG1.51