Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Khalidiya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Najma 2-7 Khalidiya
Original prediction
Khalidiya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.75 | 13.4% | 12.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.33 | 20.9% | 17.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.38 | 65.7% | 70.7% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Khalidiya
Probability
70.7%
Model confidence
70.7%
Khalidiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NajmaWWWLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
KhalidiyaWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al NajmaKhalidiya
59.1Attack68.2
36.4Defence74.2
40.9Form66.7
46.8Power67.9
0.94xG2.53