Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Najma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Najma 3-0 Damac
Original prediction
Al Najma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.4% | 39.1% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.2% | 29.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.71 | 24.5% | 31.9% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Al Najma
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Al Najma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NajmaDDDDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
DamacWWLDD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al NajmaDamac
38.9Attack38.9
61.1Defence66.7
38.9Form50.0
49.4Power55.0
1.02xG0.98