Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Najma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Najma 1-1 Al-Raed
Original prediction
Al Najma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.7% | 37.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 27.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 33.7% | 34.5% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Al Najma
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Al Najma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NajmaDDLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al-RaedWLLWW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al NajmaAl-Raed
41.7Attack50.0
58.3Defence58.3
41.7Form50.0
50.3Power53.2
1.25xG1.18