Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Najma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Najma 1-2 A'Ali
Original prediction
Al Najma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.2% | 45.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.6% | 25.8% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.2% | 28.7% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Al Najma
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Al Najma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NajmaDWLWL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
A'AliLLWLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al NajmaA'Ali
60.0Attack26.7
20.0Defence46.7
46.7Form26.7
43.8Power36.7
1.80xG1.25