Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nahda · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nahda 5-1 Sur
Original prediction
Al-Nahda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.0% | 59.0% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 20.5% | 23.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 7.24 | 12.4% | 17.9% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nahda
Probability
59.0%
Model confidence
59.0%
Al-Nahda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NahdaLWDDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
SurLWWLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-NahdaSur
55.6Attack25.0
66.7Defence25.0
77.8Form0.0
70.7Power21.5
1.99xG0.72