Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nahda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nahda 2-1 Sohar
Original prediction
Al-Nahda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 04:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.0% | 37.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.8% | 29.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.2% | 33.1% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nahda
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Al-Nahda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NahdaDDDDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
SoharLDWDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al-NahdaSohar
41.7Attack66.7
75.0Defence44.4
50.0Form66.7
57.4Power61.0
1.52xG1.26