Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nahda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Nahda 1-1 Al Taawon
Original prediction
Al-Nahda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 25.6% | 44.4% | 18.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.1% | 23.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 48.3% | 31.9% | -16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nahda
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Al-Nahda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-NahdaDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Al TaawonLLDLD
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Al-NahdaAl Taawon
63.3Attack55.6
63.3Defence61.1
66.7Form61.1
65.5Power60.8
1.63xG1.11