Al Minaa Basravs
Ghaz Al Shamal
COMPLETEDIraq · Iraqi League · 10/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al Minaa Basra 0-0 Ghaz Al Shamal, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Minaa Basra 2-0 Ghaz Al Shamal
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.8% | 35.1% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.1% | 34.5% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 25.1% | 30.5% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Projected Score
Al Minaa Basra 0–0 Ghaz Al Shamal
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.5%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al Minaa BasraDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Ghaz Al ShamalDDDLW
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Al Minaa BasraGhaz Al Shamal
33.3Attack16.7
58.3Defence79.2
37.5Form33.3
44.5Power46.1
0.64xG0.65