Al-Markhiyavs
Al Ahli Doha
COMPLETEDQatar · QSL Cup · 9/29/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Markhiya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Markhiya 1-1 Al Ahli Doha
Original prediction
Al-Markhiya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.2% | 37.0% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.2% | 27.6% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.6% | 35.4% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Al-Markhiya
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Al-Markhiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00