Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UMM Salal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Khor 0-2 UMM Salal
Original prediction
UMM Salal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.7% | 31.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 45.8% | 41.6% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
UMM Salal
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
UMM Salal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-KhorLWLLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
UMM SalalWLWDL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-KhorUMM Salal
0.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power80.3
1.20xG1.52