Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Karma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al-Karma 1-0 Zakho, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Karma 1-0 Zakho
Original prediction
Al-Karma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.3% | 61.3% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.6% | 23.1% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 4.09 | 22.1% | 15.6% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Projected Score
Al-Karma 1–0 Zakho
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Al-Karma
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Al-Karma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-KarmaWWWWD
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ZakhoWDDLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-KarmaZakho
61.9Attack33.3
76.2Defence52.4
81.0Form42.9
74.9Power45.4
1.85xG0.55