Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Karma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al-Karma 0-0 Naft, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Karma 3-0 Naft
Original prediction
Al-Karma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.1% | 43.7% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.2% | 29.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 19.7% | 26.4% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Projected Score
Al-Karma 0–0 Naft
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Al-Karma
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Al-Karma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-KarmaWWDWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
NaftWDDDW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Al-KarmaNaft
53.3Attack40.0
73.3Defence93.3
73.3Form60.0
69.5Power64.8
1.07xG0.79