Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Karma · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Al-Karma 2-0 Al Karkh, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Karma 3-2 Al Karkh
Original prediction
Al-Karma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.2% | 67.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 21.9% | 20.3% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 7.55 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Projected Score
Al-Karma 2–0 Al Karkh
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Al-Karma
Probability
67.0%
Model confidence
67.0%
Al-Karma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-KarmaWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al KarkhWWLLD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al-KarmaAl Karkh
58.3Attack41.7
79.2Defence41.7
83.3Form29.2
75.9Power40.5
2.20xG0.58