Al Karkhvs
Naft Maysan
COMPLETEDIraq · Iraqi League · 9/17/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Al Karkh 0-0 Naft Maysan, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Karkh 3-2 Naft Maysan
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.0% | 35.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 30.9% | 30.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Projected Score
Al Karkh 0–0 Naft Maysan
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al KarkhWLLDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Naft MaysanWDLDL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Al KarkhNaft Maysan
33.3Attack19.0
42.9Defence61.9
19.0Form33.3
34.9Power40.0
0.92xG0.90