Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Jazira · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Jazira 2-1 Arkadag
Original prediction
Al-Jazira
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 73.0% | 41.9% | -31.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.61 | 16.4% | 25.0% | 8.6 pts |
| Away | 8.65 | 10.6% | 33.1% | 22.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Al-Jazira
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Al-Jazira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-JaziraDWWDD
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ArkadagWWWWW
GF 16 · GA 0 · avg 3.20/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
Al-JaziraArkadag
0.0Attack66.7
100.0Defence100.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power89.7
1.23xG1.59