Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Jazira · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Jazira 1-1 Al Nasr
Original prediction
Al-Jazira
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.8% | 59.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.1% | 21.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 5.28 | 17.1% | 18.8% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Al-Jazira
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Al-Jazira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-JaziraWWWWL
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al NasrLLWDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-JaziraAl Nasr
83.3Attack41.7
91.7Defence50.0
100.0Form33.3
92.9Power44.6
2.46xG0.98