Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Jazira · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Jazira 1-0 Ajman
Original prediction
Al-Jazira
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 65.8% | 45.2% | -20.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 20.2% | 26.4% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 6.45 | 13.9% | 28.3% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Al-Jazira
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Al-Jazira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-JaziraDWDWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AjmanLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al-JaziraAjman
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.48xG1.26