Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Jazira · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Jazira 3-0 Ajman
Original prediction
Al-Jazira
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 58.0% | 48.3% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.7% | 24.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 19.3% | 27.3% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Al-Jazira
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Al-Jazira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-JaziraWWLDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AjmanWWWLD
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Al-JaziraAjman
66.7Attack100.0
100.0Defence16.7
100.0Form100.0
91.7Power79.2
2.16xG1.52