Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Arabi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Jahra 2-1 Al Arabi
Original prediction
Al Arabi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 11.11 | 8.1% | 30.8% | 22.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.44 | 16.6% | 25.6% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 1.20 | 75.3% | 43.6% | -31.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Arabi
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Al Arabi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al JahraLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al ArabiDLLDW
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Al JahraAl Arabi
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24