Al Ittihadvs
Paro
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Challenge League · 10/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ittihad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ittihad 2-1 Paro
Original prediction
Al Ittihad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 69.9% | 51.3% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.23 | 17.4% | 23.8% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 7.15 | 12.7% | 24.9% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Al Ittihad
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Al Ittihad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20