Al Ittihadvs
Ahal
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Challenge League · 10/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ittihad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Ittihad 5-1 Ahal
Original prediction
Al Ittihad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.9% | 42.5% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.3% | 27.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 22.7% | 30.4% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Al Ittihad
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Al Ittihad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20