Al-Ittihad FCvs
Al-Nassr
COMPLETEDSaudi-Arabia · Pro League · 9/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nassr · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr
Original prediction
Al-Nassr
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.90 | 18.8% | 27.2% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.51 | 20.4% | 25.2% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 60.8% | 47.5% | -13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nassr
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Al-Nassr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00