Al-Hilal Saudi FCvs
Al-Gharafa
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Elite · 9/15/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Hilal Saudi FC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (14%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Al-Gharafa
Original prediction
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 89.5% | 88.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 12.30 | 7.6% | 7.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 32.75 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.4–014%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Probability
88.7%
Model confidence
88.7%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00