Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Hazm · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab
Original prediction
Al-Hazm
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.75 | 24.7% | 38.4% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.6% | 25.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 50.7% | 36.0% | -14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Al-Hazm
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Al-Hazm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-HazmLLWWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Al ShababDDLWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al-HazmAl Shabab
44.4Attack44.4
44.4Defence33.3
33.3Form22.2
43.7Power36.4
1.75xG1.33