Al-Gharafavs
Esteghlal FC
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Elite · 10/12/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Esteghlal FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Gharafa 1-2 Esteghlal FC
Original prediction
Esteghlal FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 33.3% | 31.1% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.8% | 26.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.9% | 42.0% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Esteghlal FC
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Esteghlal FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40