Al-Gharafavs
Al Mesaimeer
COMPLETEDQatar · QSL Cup · 10/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Gharafa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Gharafa 4-2 Al Mesaimeer
Original prediction
Al-Gharafa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 51.6% | 39.0% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 22.9% | 26.8% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 25.5% | 34.2% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Al-Gharafa
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Al-Gharafa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80