Al-Gharafavs
Al Ahli Doha
COMPLETEDQatar · Stars League · 10/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Gharafa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Gharafa 2-2 Al Ahli Doha
Original prediction
Al-Gharafa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 47.2% | 38.3% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.6% | 23.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.2% | 38.3% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Al-Gharafa
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Al-Gharafa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60