Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Fayha · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh
Original prediction
Al-Fayha
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.6% | 46.7% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.0% | 25.3% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.3% | 28.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al-Fayha
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Al-Fayha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-FayhaDLDWD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al RiyadhWDLWD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Al-FayhaAl Riyadh
33.3Attack38.1
47.6Defence23.8
28.6Form38.1
39.3Power35.9
1.68xG1.18