Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Fayha · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha
Original prediction
Al-Fayha
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.5% | 42.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.3% | 27.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 29.2% | 30.1% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Al-Fayha
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Al-Fayha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-FayhaDLLLD
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AbhaDLLDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-FayhaAbha
11.1Attack22.2
44.4Defence22.2
11.1Form11.1
25.8Power22.2
1.63xG1.21