Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Shabab · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab
Original prediction
Al Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 30.8% | 27.5% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.1% | 26.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 44.2% | 45.6% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Al Shabab
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Al Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-FatehLWLLL
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Al ShababDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al-FatehAl Shabab
30.0Attack40.7
33.3Defence51.9
20.0Form29.6
30.9Power42.2
0.91xG1.58